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tv   The Context with Christian Fraser  BBC News  April 19, 2022 9:00pm-10:01pm BST

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mostly fine and dry. that is your weather. hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. borisjohnson has offered mps a "wholehearted apology" after being fined by police for breaking lockdown rules — he offered this explanation for reasons behind the rule breaking. it did not occur to me then or subsequently that a gathering in the cabinet room just before a vital meeting on covid strategy could amount to a breach of the rules. i repeat, that was my mistake and i apologise for it unreservedly. the leader of the opposition calls the apology a joke — straight after that apology, borisjohnson tried to switch the focus to the war in ukraine. and the war rages on — as russian and ukrainian forces engage along a a80—km front line as the fight for the eastern donbas region begins in earnest.
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tonight with the context, nathalie tocci — director of italy's institute of international affairs & the republican strategist doug h. hello, the guiding principle of borisjohnson�*s long political career — a principle it seems he shared with donald trump — was "never to apologise, never explain". but in recent weeks the prime minister has been forced into all manner of explanations, and a series of scripted apologies to the house for breaching the very covid regulations he had set for the rest of us. today mrjohnson was at it again, a first opportunity since the easter recess, to address the commons, and apologise "unreservedly" for penalty notice he was handed last week by the metropolitan police. a fine he has since paid. but the outstanding question remains, whether mrjohnson intentionally misled the house, when he advised them there had been
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no parties in number ten, and whether this latest apology settles the score, with his restive backbenchers. let me also say, not by way of mitigation or excuse... groaning. ..but purely because it explains my previous words in this house, that it did not occur to me then or subsequently that a gathering in the cabinet room just before a vital meeting on covid strategy could amount to a breach of the rules. the apology was brief, humbly made, but the prime minister was quick to switch the focus, to what he insists is his overriding duty and that is the governments response to the war in ukraine, and the resulting cost of living crisis. mrjohnson told the house he had just come from a virtual meeting of g7 and nato leaders, at which it was decided the alliance would be stepping up its supply of heavy weaponry to ukrainian forces. our long—term goal must be to strengthen and fortify ukraine
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to the point where russia will never dare to invade again. natalie, i am natalie, iam pretty natalie, i am pretty sure that in the last few weeks, and annual background has told his voters he needs to stick around for the benefit of the effort in ukraine. borisjohnson is the only g7 leader that has been to kyiv. i'm sure mr zelensky doesn't want him to leave office. so is it imperative that he hangs around? office. 50 is it imperative that he hangs around?— hangs around? well, i mean, i think it's fair to say _ hangs around? well, i mean, i think it's fair to say that _ hangs around? well, i mean, i think it's fair to say that boris _ hangs around? well, i mean, i think it's fair to say that boris johnson - it's fair to say that boris johnson has had a good war. up until the 24th of february, borisjohnson literally seemed to be overt in many aspects, despite party gate, i think it's fair to say that this government and in general the united kingdom has really been at the forefront in terms of supporting ukrainian defence, and i think this is a merit that should absolutely be
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given. is this borisjohnson? or is this the united kingdom? i think it's very much the united kingdom. i think this is a state effort rather than a government effort. frankly speaking, whoever would be in government today would do exactly the same things as borisjohnson's government doing today. so frankly speaking whether or notjohnson remains in government i think should have little to do with ukraine and far more to do with what he is doing internally within the country. i think it's a completely different story what happens in france. here you have an opposition challenging macron, meaning marine le pen that has been an outright supporter of pollutant. so the connection with the war in ukraine is a far more stringent when.— the war in ukraine is a far more strinuent when. , ., , ,.,, ., stringent when. died, the opposition leader sa s stringent when. died, the opposition leader says he _ stringent when. died, the opposition leader says he is _ stringent when. died, the opposition leader says he is using _ stringent when. died, the opposition leader says he is using ukraine - stringent when. died, the opposition leader says he is using ukraine as i stringent when. died, the opposition leader says he is using ukraine as al leader says he is using ukraine as a shield. ——doug, the opposition leader says he is using ukraine as a
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shield. is are powerful images that we saw all over_ is are powerful images that we saw all over the — is are powerful images that we saw all over the ground. borisjohnson all over the ground. boris johnson makes _ all over the ground. boris johnson makes a _ all over the ground. boris johnson makes a lot — all over the ground. borisjohnson makes a lot of knees and the us, probably— makes a lot of knees and the us, probably more so than previous prime ministers, _ probably more so than previous prime ministers, and those images were by every— ministers, and those images were by every american, and really set up a lot of— every american, and really set up a lot of questions forjoe biden as to whether_ lot of questions forjoe biden as to whether or— lot of questions forjoe biden as to whether or not or when he makes go to ukraine _ whether or not or when he makes go to ukraine as— whether or not or when he makes go to ukraine as well. if you are boris and you _ to ukraine as well. if you are boris and you are — to ukraine as well. if you are boris and you are on his team right now, you are _ and you are on his team right now, you are focused on the job at hand, that is— you are focused on the job at hand, that is the — you are focused on the job at hand, that is the upcoming trip to india, focus _ that is the upcoming trip to india, focus on — that is the upcoming trip to india, focus on doing the job so that you can come — focus on doing the job so that you can come as — focus on doing the job so that you can come as we saw in the bill clinton — can come as we saw in the bill clinton years, move on from party gate _ clinton years, move on from party gate and _ clinton years, move on from party gate and the latest scandalous topic you are _ gate and the latest scandalous topic you are briefly part of his team. i know you — you are briefly part of his team. i know you advised him when he came to the united _ know you advised him when he came to the united states some years back. never_ the united states some years back. never apologise, the united states some years back. neverapologise, never the united states some years back. never apologise, never explain. the united states some years back. neverapologise, never explain. do never apologise, never explain. do you think— neverapologise, never explain. do you think from a political strategy perspective he is getting this right? — perspective he is getting this right? does perspective he is getting this right? doe— perspective he is getting this riuht? doe ., , ., , . right? does does that sound sincere? doesn't hit the _ right? does does that sound sincere? doesn't hit the mark? _ right? does does that sound sincere? doesn't hit the mark? he _ right? does does that sound sincere? doesn't hit the mark? he said - doesn't hit the mark? he said without any — doesn't hit the mark? he said without any reservation - doesn't hit the mark? he said without any reservation and l doesn't hit the mark? he said | without any reservation and so doesn't hit the mark? he said - without any reservation and so forth that this _ without any reservation and so forth that this was the apology he needed to make. _ that this was the apology he needed to make, and this is how he can then bagin— to make, and this is how he can then heginto— to make, and this is how he can then begin to move past this as he has been _ begin to move past this as he has been trying to demonstrate over the
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past few— been trying to demonstrate over the past few weeks and obviously every wednesday seems to be more important than the _ wednesday seems to be more important than the next when he is facing questions _ than the next when he is facing questions. it's important for him to be seen _ questions. it's important for him to be seen doing the job and to remain focused _ be seen doing the job and to remain focused on — be seen doing the job and to remain focused on that. once he has made the apology, he can then say we have addressed _ the apology, he can then say we have addressed it, we've dealt with that, we've _ addressed it, we've dealt with that, we've paid — addressed it, we've dealt with that, we've paid the fine and move on. in the last hour borisjohnson has been meeting his backbench mp�*s in private, we are told there has been a lot of banging of table in support. but ultimately the decision of the backbenchers will come down to three things, the local elections on may five — who some voters in the uk will go to the polls. we are still expecting the full report from the senior civil servant sue gray into parties at downing street. yes, still. and whether there are any more fines for the prime minister — as the met police continues its investigation. let's bring in catherine haddon — senior fellow from the institute for government i suppose the slight risk for the prime minister is that when you look at the gathering for which he received a fine, many people would say it was one of the lesser
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offences, so there must be a risk here that he's notjust going to have to apologise once, that could be a problem for the backbenchers. to some extent, there was quite a bit of surprise from that gathering, the infamous cake, the one that he received a fine friend that they found him guilty of breaching covid restrictions. it is obviously the other one which was a picture of him in the party with gathered with various of his team. other reports of him being at the leaving party and, you know, possibly the celebrations in the flat afterwards, so there is a number of other cases. we note that the metropolitan police are investigating... yes. we note that the metropolitan police are investigating. . .— are investigating... yes, sorry, we are investigating... yes, sorry, we are 'ust are investigating... yes, sorry, we are just picking — are investigating... yes, sorry, we arejust picking un— are investigating... yes, sorry, we arejust picking up natalie, - are investigating... yes, sorry, we are just picking up natalie, who i arejust picking up natalie, who seems to illustrate electricity in south africa. apologies for the
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interruption. what he says as it did not occur to me then or subsequently that i gather in the cabinets from the head of a strategy meeting could amount to a breach of the rules. whether he knowingly or unwittingly misled the house of commons, does it matter whether it occurred to him it was a breach of the law? it matter whether it occurred to him it was a breach of the law?— was a breach of the law? it matters to his mps how— was a breach of the law? it matters to his mps how he _ was a breach of the law? it matters to his mps how he is _ was a breach of the law? it matters to his mps how he is currently - to his mps how he is currently playing this apology. you know, the seriousness with which he gave the apology today, the grave tone, we've seen throughout the course of this whole party gate saga since november last year different sides of boris johnson as he tries to navigate this. today was obviously apologising to the public, but it was also trying to set a tone with his mps. so his reasoning for why he gave the answers that he gave to parliament when the story first broke at the various moments where more and more was revealed, this is
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his way of explaining why, you know, if he was misleading parliament was not being able to provide, i think the answer that they were giving to some of his supporters was because the context changed, because the news came subsequently that he hadn't realised this. that still opens up lots of questions about did he understand his own rules? and if he understand his own rules? and if he is apologising for misleading the house purely on that specific exam paul, where a cake was handed to him just before, as he says, very important meeting, well how is he going to explain away once to the public which will seem even less expensive, christmas parties, leaving drinks, drinks in the garden, those kinds of things, so he's kind of set himself a bit of hostage a fortune of how he navigates those future ones. the one decision that's _ navigates those future ones. the one decision that's been _ navigates those future ones. the one decision that's been made _ navigates those future ones. the one decision that's been made today - navigates those future ones. the one decision that's been made today is i decision that's been made today is the one made by the speaker. on thursday, they will vote whether or not to refer the issue to the privileges committee, whether or not he misled the house. it's not about
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that labour will win, he misled the house. it's not about that labourwillwin, but he misled the house. it's not about that labour will win, but it means that labour will win, but it means that conservative backbenchers have to vote and have to be on the record. this is what the former chief website about that vote. it's at times like this that our country— it's at times like this that our country needs a prime minister who exemplifies those values. i regret to say— exemplifies those values. i regret to say that — exemplifies those values. i regret to say that we have a prime minister who broke _ to say that we have a prime minister who broke the laws that he told the country they had to follow, hasn't been _ country they had to follow, hasn't been straightforward about it and is now going _ been straightforward about it and is now going to ask the decent men and women _ now going to ask the decent men and women on _ now going to ask the decent men and women on these benches to defend what i _ women on these benches to defend what i think is indefensible. i'm very— what i think is indefensible. i'm very sorry— what i think is indefensible. i'm very sorry to have to say this, but i no very sorry to have to say this, but i no longer— very sorry to have to say this, but i no longer think he is worthy of the great — i no longer think he is worthy of the great office that he holds. catherine, talk to me about that vote. and why would this put conservative backbenchers into a thanks? it’s conservative backbenchers into a thanks? �* , ., conservative backbenchers into a thanks? �* , . , ., thanks? it's an interesting one, because on _
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thanks? it's an interesting one, because on one _ thanks? it's an interesting one, because on one level, - thanks? it's an interesting one, because on one level, you - thanks? it's an interesting one, | because on one level, you would think this is a pure integrity matter, this is about our mps holding the prime minister to account. they are the only people who can do so, and this is a good fundamental issue of making sure that the house is not misled and considering it contempt if that happens. so this is a really important test for parliament, but at the same time, it is a hugely political moment. so the way in which the opposition play, it is how they wear the motion which we will probably see tomorrow, whether or not they try and drop off some conservative mps by putting them in that really tricky position, and then also have the governments play sets and borisjohnson himself. we saw with owen patterson, the case last year where the government effectively were too heavy handed with their own mps, didn't give them a vote, a free vote. this time around, they could even say, well, it's a matter of voting confidence in the prime minister, because if you find him in contempt of parliament, you know, his position
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will be untenable. they could put pressure on him in other ways. it's also a question for the prime minister. he talked about his trip to india, there was one report i saw earlier saying that he is considering cancelling that, it alienates his mps more if he is not bear to be held to account by parliament. bear to be held to account by parliament-— parliament. yes, at a critical moment- — parliament. yes, at a critical moment. doug, _ parliament. yes, at a critical moment. doug, the - parliament. yes, at a critical moment. doug, the prime l parliament. yes, at a critical- moment. doug, the prime minister said that it was made in good faith, his apology today, the trouble is it's ultimately the decision of the mps, but the prime minister is the guardian of the ministerial code. he has the supposed protector of accountability and decency, and this is much kier starmer had to say about that. the prime minister knows what he is. and so he drags everyone else down with him, the more people debase themselves — parroting his absurd defences — the more the public will believe
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all politicians are the same, all us bad, and that suits this prime ministerjust fine. and that is the issue, and it was theissue and that is the issue, and it was the issue with donald trump, under criminal investigation while in office. it drags down all politicians. isn't it incumbent in a democracy for the spirit, the rates appear to be set at the top?- appear to be set at the top? sure, and that is — appear to be set at the top? sure, and that is obviously _ appear to be set at the top? sure, and that is obviously where - appear to be set at the top? sure, and that is obviously where we - appear to be set at the top? sure, and that is obviously where we have fallen short — and that is obviously where we have fallen short with donald trump being impeached, bill clinton, richard nixon _ impeached, bill clinton, richard nixon resigning. we try to elect good _ nixon resigning. we try to elect good people, but we elect the wrong people _ good people, but we elect the wrong people into office and expect them to lead _ people into office and expect them to lead us— people into office and expect them to lead us commits part of the challenge you have in a hopefully functioning democracy. the challenge you have in a hopefully functioning democracy.— challenge you have in a hopefully functioning democracy. the last one to ou, functioning democracy. the last one to you, catherine, _ functioning democracy. the last one to you, catherine, there _ functioning democracy. the last one to you, catherine, there is - functioning democracy. the last one to you, catherine, there is a - to you, catherine, there is a precedent here. whether or not he thought he does leave the house,
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what he did unwittingly, the former secretary, she did to see the house, albeit with data that had been wrong and she resigned on point of principle. so there is a precedent here. , , .~' principle. so there is a precedent here. , , a ., here. there is. it is trickier than that. i here. there is. it is trickier than that- i don't _ here. there is. it is trickier than that. i don't want _ here. there is. it is trickier than that. i don't want to _ here. there is. it is trickier than that. i don't want to sound - here. there is. it is trickier than that. i don't want to sound like | here. there is. it is trickier than i that. i don't want to sound like i'm watering down the ministerial code, but it is accurate to say that certainly when it's inadvertent misleading, we have seen a range of different approaches to that, in this case, it was such a hugely controversial issue. she really felt that she needed to carry the can for the department, but it was inadvertent or at least it was, you know, the wrong advice is given to her. that doesn't make it a hard and fast rule, but at the same time, you know, it comes down to politics because the nature of what he's being accused of is extremely serious. you know, the public�*s view of it is really important in terms of it is really important in terms of their view of government and of the conservative party, but at the same time, it is going to come down
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to a politicaljudgment from his mps as to whether or not they want to keep them, even if it's just in the short term, so that is the way our system works, as frustrating as that is for many people.— system works, as frustrating as that is for many people. catherine, thank ou ve is for many people. catherine, thank you very much _ is for many people. catherine, thank you very much indeed _ is for many people. catherine, thank you very much indeed for _ is for many people. catherine, thank you very much indeed for that. - is for many people. catherine, thank you very much indeed for that. i - you very much indeed for that. i think we do have natalie back with us, even though the lights have gone out. forthe us, even though the lights have gone out. for the moment, we will move on, and move to ukraine, turn the spotlight to the wire. the battle of the donbas has begun. an intensive bombardment began overnight in cities in the east of the country. russia's second offensive we are warned will rely heavily on russian artillery. moscow claims to have struck more than 1,000 targets overnight. thousands of russian troops are now attacking ukrainian positions along the entire 480km front line in the donbas region. so far ukraine has managed to hold the line, except for in the town of kreminna, where there is now street—to—street fighting. ukraine has been preparing for this offensive for weeks — we know that much of its best forces are stationed in the east, but they are heavily outgunned.
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in the battered port city of mariupol, the russian ultimatum to surrender have twice been ignored and still the ukrainians fight. but it does seem likely the city will fall — which would allow more russian troops to attack the donbas from the south, from crimea. russia's military says it now controls almost all areas of the city — those in red. except for the azovstal steel plant — where the last of the ukrainian troops — and many women and children — are holed out in the underground tunnels and nuclear bunkers. russia has been shelling it for days and there are reports that russian special forces have now been sent in. peter zwack, is a retired brigadier general and fellow at the wilson centre. before that was the united states senior defence attache to russia, he wrote a book swimming the volga: an army officer's experiences in pre—putin russia.
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welcome to the programme. there has been a shift tonight and the language coming from g7 leaders that in the words of borisjohnson, we need to arm ukraine such that president putin doesn't think about invading again. that is a change from the hesitancy we saw the beginning of this war. what do you think it means?— beginning of this war. what do you think it means? great question. we are where we _ think it means? great question. we are where we are _ think it means? great question. we are where we are when _ think it means? great question. we are where we are when we - think it means? great question. we are where we are when we wear, i think it means? great question. we. are where we are when we wear, and it was a lot different than eight weeks ago. it's an epic defensive fights, a bumbling russian offensive on a scale that, frankly, none of us imagined. you have now deep into this, not a deadlock, but a real mono e mono fight that has developed through the donbas. it would happen to rush around, was extraordinary,
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how much they fight —— what happened to kyiv. let's review the black sea for a minute. a southern flank and the sinking of the russian ship, and your country is an evil country especially, and and you can feel how shocking that was to the russians and how motivating it was for the ukrainians. all of this is going around on the flanks. now you have, if you well, all eyes on that donbas, eastern ukraine and sort of ukraine's evolving stalingrad in mauripol, and it's a terrible cost, and the garrison is a shadow of what it is, but it is a heroic, epic last stand that is pumping even more oxygen into... stand that is pumping even more oxygen into- - -—
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stand that is pumping even more oxygen into... they are refusing, in fact, i'm oxygen into... they are refusing, in fact. i'mjust_ oxygen into... they are refusing, in fact, i'm just reading _ oxygen into... they are refusing, in fact, i'm just reading that _ oxygen into... they are refusing, in fact, i'm just reading that they i fact, i'm just reading that they have been issued with another ultimatum to sorrento by tomorrow, but two of oregon, doesn't seem that they are going to lay down their arms. in fact they said they would fight to the last blood. clearly, i want to talk to about the artillery, we are warned that this is going to be a battle of attrition as the russian artillery positions itself along that eastern flank. i want to play it you an interview that bob seeley gave to the bbc today. he's just come back and he's been visiting the front line to see what ukrainian troops require. this is what he said about the state of the ukrainian artillery. have a listen. the russians use 1.25 millimetres artillery shells, basic large artillery. the ukrainians have the same but they are having real difficult to getting hold of the shells needed to keep that artillery sites going. if they had access to 155 nato spec sealed guns, potentially as 90's, which we have, it would allow
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them to overmatched the russians and force the russians to change tactics, and it would make it much more difficult for the russians to besiege and bomb cities of the east and south as they are doing at the moment. that is an important point. they could push the russians back from a firing distance of the cities. the frustration from a president selling ski is that for all the bold promises that are made, stuff arrives late. we've known for two weeks that there was going to be an in the and yet only today nato and g7 leaders are discussing what they can send. why so late? it’s g7 leaders are discussing what they can send. why so late?— can send. why so late? it's been slow. can send. why so late? it's been slow- right _ can send. why so late? it's been slow. right now, _ can send. why so late? it's been slow. right now, the _ can send. why so late? it's been slow. right now, the bulk- can send. why so late? it's been slow. right now, the bulk of- can send. why so late? it's been slow. right now, the bulk of the| slow. right now, the bulk of the ukrainian military, as the gentleman mentioned, it's 122 and 152 ammendment mentioned, it's122 and 152 ammendment former russian soviet type rounds. they need them in vast quantities. that's the core of their artillery. i'm all for, i love the
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idea of sending a battalion of 155 ammendment howitzers, we need to be sending a brigade. 18 is great, but not enough. the counter battery will be critical. this is where the drones matter. we have all been seen footage of the russians trundling to the front with the lots of bm 21 multiple rocket launchers and things. area fires, you know, disregarding civilian casualties. so this is in many ways you could almost visualise a world war i or world war ii from a russian perspective, you know, kind of describe it almost as a hub, just inundate ukrainian forces who've got to maxi, they are dug in deep, but there will be a lot of fires because russians are now on the interior supply lines for that, yes, ukrainians need more counter
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equipment. we need to get the stuff and because there is going to be a face after that. and everything that we can get in now that can load, if you will come of the systems ukrainians have now is critical. natalie, let me bring you in on this. clearly there is frustration. we talked earlier in the programme about borisjohnson, but he is sending armoured missile launchers, the most sophisticated agreement that has been sent yet which can bring down low flying jets and helicopters. why is there not similar noises being made by the germans? ., , ., ~ ., germans? out, i mean, you know, there are lots — germans? out, i mean, you know, there are lots of _ germans? out, i mean, you know, there are lots of noises _ germans? out, i mean, you know, there are lots of noises being i germans? out, i mean, you know, | there are lots of noises being made by the _ there are lots of noises being made by the germans on weapons. there are a lot of— by the germans on weapons. there are a lot of similar noises being made by germans on energy, which is actually— by germans on energy, which is actually even worse, yeah? because given— actually even worse, yeah? because given that _ actually even worse, yeah? because given that in many respects one can argue _ given that in many respects one can argue that _ given that in many respects one can argue that different countries have different _ argue that different countries have different comparative advantages, if there is— different comparative advantages, if there is something that the germans could really hit the russians hard on, could really hit the russians hard on. that— could really hit the russians hard on. that is— could really hit the russians hard on, that is energy. and that is not
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happening — on, that is energy. and that is not happening. why that is not happening? welcome in many respects, it's still— happening? welcome in many respects, it's still a _ happening? welcome in many respects, it's still a mystery to me. the germans _ it's still a mystery to me. the germans actually seem to be the ones at the _ germans actually seem to be the ones at the beginning really where, in fact, _ at the beginning really where, in fact, where the first ones that wear really _ fact, where the first ones that wear really talking about an ethical change. — really talking about an ethical change, you know? this was the end of an— change, you know? this was the end of an era _ change, you know? this was the end of an era we — change, you know? this was the end of an era. we were moving away from a postwar— of an era. we were moving away from a postwar era — of an era. we were moving away from a postwar era to a prewar era. yet, after— a postwar era to a prewar era. yet, after that— a postwar era to a prewar era. yet, after that first big step forward, 100 billion extra on defence, 2% .oal 100 billion extra on defence, 2% goal on — 100 billion extra on defence, 2% goal on defence being met, then you start seeing the germans retreating. now, _ start seeing the germans retreating. now. is— start seeing the germans retreating. now. is this — start seeing the germans retreating. now, is this simply a phase of political— now, is this simply a phase of political consolidation after having made _ political consolidation after having made a _ political consolidation after having made a big step forward? 0r political consolidation after having made a big step forward? or is it something — made a big step forward? or is it something else? i don't know. but what is _ something else? i don't know. but what is clear is that the battle for it that _ what is clear is that the battle for it that donbas is now.— it that donbas is now. doug, the hesitancy of _ it that donbas is now. doug, the hesitancy of pet _ it that donbas is now. doug, the hesitancy of pet sending - it that donbas is now. doug, the hesitancy of pet sending heavy l hesitancy of pet sending heavy weaponry is gone. i sense and made that clear today when he said we need to ensure that president putin never thinks about this again. does that make you nervous? de facto,
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this is now a war between nato and the most sophisticated equipment nato has and the russians. yes. the most sophisticated equipment nato has and the russians. yes, and russia is now — nato has and the russians. yes, and russia is now talking _ nato has and the russians. yes, and russia is now talking about - russia is now talking about retaliatory _ russia is now talking about retaliatory acts _ russia is now talking about retaliatory acts against i russia is now talking about l retaliatory acts against nato. russia is now talking about i retaliatory acts against nato. it russia is now talking about - retaliatory acts against nato. it is troubling — retaliatory acts against nato. it is troubling and _ retaliatory acts against nato. it is troubling and concerning. - retaliatory acts against nato. it is troubling and concerning. it's i retaliatory acts against nato. it is| troubling and concerning. it's also the situation — troubling and concerning. it's also the situation that _ troubling and concerning. it's also the situation that we _ troubling and concerning. it's also the situation that we are - troubling and concerning. it's also the situation that we are in - troubling and concerning. it's also the situation that we are in and i troubling and concerning. it's also| the situation that we are in and we have _ the situation that we are in and we have to _ the situation that we are in and we have to be — the situation that we are in and we have to be realistic _ the situation that we are in and we have to be realistic about - the situation that we are in and we have to be realistic about it. it's. have to be realistic about it. it's why we — have to be realistic about it. it's why we need _ have to be realistic about it. it's why we need to _ have to be realistic about it. it's why we need to see _ have to be realistic about it. it's why we need to see more - have to be realistic about it. it's- why we need to see more leadership from congress — why we need to see more leadership from congress and _ why we need to see more leadership from congress and certainly - why we need to see more leadership from congress and certainly from i why we need to see more leadership| from congress and certainly from the president _ from congress and certainly from the president here — from congress and certainly from the president here and _ from congress and certainly from the president here and to _ from congress and certainly from the president here and to do _ from congress and certainly from the president here and to do everything i president here and to do everything we can— president here and to do everything we can to _ president here and to do everything we can to back— president here and to do everything we can to back up— president here and to do everything we can to back up ukraine - president here and to do everything we can to back up ukraine up - president here and to do everything we can to back up ukraine up to- president here and to do everything we can to back up ukraine up to thej we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt, we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt. because. — we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt, because, you _ we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt, because, you know, _ we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt, because, you know, this - we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt, because, you know, this is i we can to back up ukraine up to the hilt, because, you know, this is notj hilt, because, you know, this is not just about _ hilt, because, you know, this is not just about ukraine. _ hilt, because, you know, this is not just about ukraine. this _ hilt, because, you know, this is not just about ukraine. this is- hilt, because, you know, this is not just about ukraine. this is about i just about ukraine. this is about the next — just about ukraine. this is about the next 20 _ just about ukraine. this is about the next 20 years, _ just about ukraine. this is about the next 20 years, the _ just about ukraine. this is about the next 20 years, the next i just about ukraine. this is about the next 20 years, the next 100| the next 20 years, the next 100 years— the next 20 years, the next 100 years of— the next 20 years, the next 100 years of global _ the next 20 years, the next 100 years of global history. - the next 20 years, the next 100 years of global history. test i the next 20 years, the next 100 years of global history.- years of global history. test on republicans. — years of global history. test on republicans, the _ years of global history. test on republicans, the nuance i years of global history. test on republicans, the nuance that l years of global history. test on i republicans, the nuance that there was towards the russian war in ukraine, is that gone? are republicans in congress returning to it the traditional position republicans would take? that would be a very strong line against moscow. br; be a very strong line against moscow. �* , . . be a very strong line against moscow— be a very strong line against moscow. �*, . . ., . ., moscow. by and large, that change has been made. _ moscow. by and large, that change has been made. there _ moscow. by and large, that change has been made. there is _ moscow. by and large, that change has been made. there is always i moscow. by and large, that change i has been made. there is always going to be some _ has been made. there is always going to be some that— has been made. there is always going to be some that would _ has been made. there is always going to be some that would well— has been made. there is always going to be some that would well caught i to be some that would well caught loudmouths—
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to be some that would well caught loudmouths who _ to be some that would well caught loudmouths who are _ to be some that would well caught loudmouths who are disagreeable i to be some that would well caught l loudmouths who are disagreeable to be disagreeable, _ loudmouths who are disagreeable to be disagreeable, but _ loudmouths who are disagreeable to be disagreeable, but by— loudmouths who are disagreeable to be disagreeable, but by and - loudmouths who are disagreeable to be disagreeable, but by and large, l be disagreeable, but by and large, the republican— be disagreeable, but by and large, the republican party— be disagreeable, but by and large, the republican party is— be disagreeable, but by and large, the republican party is pretty- the republican party is pretty unified — the republican party is pretty unified on— the republican party is pretty unified on this _ the republican party is pretty unified on this step _ the republican party is pretty unified on this step widely i the republican party is prettyj unified on this step widely we the republican party is pretty- unified on this step widely we will leave _ unified on this step widely we will leave it _ unified on this step widely we will leave it there. _ unified on this step widely we will leave it there. it's _ unified on this step widely we will leave it there. it's lovely - unified on this step widely we will leave it there. it's lovely to - unified on this step widely we will leave it there. it's lovely to have i leave it there. it's lovely to have you back on the programme. thank you very much— back on the programme. thank you very much indeed _ back on the programme. thank you very much indeed for— back on the programme. thank you very much indeed for your- back on the programme. thank youj very much indeed for your analysis. do stay with us on the programme. we will speak about the effect of the war on the global— speak about the effect of the war on the global economy. _ speak about the effect of the war on the global economy. the _ speak about the effect of the war on the global economy. the imf - speak about the effect of the war oni the global economy. the imf reports today— the global economy. the imf reports toda, . the global economy. the imf reports toda . ., ., next year will be downgraded and it is having an enormous effect, of course, on the cost of living. inflation, a principal objective for the imf to tackle and the central banks around the world. we are going to get into all of that. we will also talk about an asteroid on a lighter note that has landed in the west midlands here in england. the search has been ongoing for that asteroid over the course of the weekend. we will be talking to the team on the ground who have been looking for it. stay with us, natalie will be with us and also doug, the republican strategist. you are watching the context here on bbc news.
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hello there. although today has been a day of sunshine and showers, this is called the calvin helmholtz crowd —— cloud. looks like waves breaking on the beach. caused by waves flowing fast at the top of the cloud then at the bottom. it does show the tail end of a what a friend working into northern ireland. here, outbreaks of rain moving into western counties, but if that fringing into west scotland as well. elsewhere, we start to see the cloud bubble up and develop and some showers will grow. some areas will be more prone to seeing the showers than others, for example, across the south midlands, central southern england, this convergence on building and whether winds bash together. that is where you've got the highest chance of seeing showers today and there will be some fairly
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happy ones here whereas across much of eastern england, it should be showered free and completely dry for most with some sunshine. temperatures today, still above average for the time of year. 12—16 celsius. in the sunshine, light winds, not feeling too bad at all. overnight tonight, we see the showers fading away pretty quickly. we will have some clear spells coming in with the clearest of the skies, temperatures dipped low enough to give an odd nip of the frost. forthe enough to give an odd nip of the frost. for the rest of the big's forecast, really, we are dominated by areas of high pressure to the north, and what happens is that because by as we start to get some tightly packed isobars, some stronger easterly winds and that will have an impact on the temperatures. now, wednesday, most of us will have another fine day with some sunshine around. after a chilly start to the day, if you mist and five patch is playing, but it's across western areas that you can see the cloud bubble up just enough to get the odd shower, particularly for wales, conversely, to get the odd shower, particularly forwales, conversely, london should be warmer, temperatures around 18 celsius. at their stay, we will
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start to notice the east and north easterly winds blowing a little bit more strongly. most of the uk will have a dry day with some sunshine. temperatures at the highest across western areas, really, 17 celsius in cardiff. the winds get stronger on friday, around some of these north seacoast that we will start to notice a certain shell to the air with temperatures around 12 celsius in newcastle and hall. the highest temperatures for the rest away from the chilly north sea. the weekend, probably largely dry, though, there could be some rain trying to moving across parts of the south and east during the weekend. that's the latest weather.
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hello, i'm christian fraser. you're watching the context on bbc news. borisjohnson has apologised to the house of commons — after he was fined by police for attending a lockdown party in downing street — but the prime minister says it his duty to carry on. part of that duty involves the uk governments response to ukraine — where russian second offensive has begun in the donbas region. the international monetary fund says the global economy will be �*severly set back�* by the war in ukraine — with the uk economy forecast to grow the slowest of the g7 economies next year. and — if you live in shrewsbury england — have you discovered a small piece of rock that looks like this — if you have — there's a scientist who is looking for you! tonight with the context, nathalie tocci — director of italy's institute of international affairs & the republican strategist doug hi.
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the global economy was just beginning to recover from the covid pandemic when russia launched its assault on ukraine, driving up prices across the board. to noone's suprise the international montary fund today cut its global growth forecast while warning that next year the impact could be particularly severe for the uk. but the imf warn of another threat to the global economy. inflation has become a clear and present danger for many countries. even prior to the war had surged in the back of soaring commodity prices and supply demand imbalances. many centred banks such as the federal reserve had already moved towards tightening monetary policy. war —related disruptions amplify those
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pressures. pressures . heidi crebo—rediker — former chief economist for the us state deparment who's now an adjunct senior fellow at the council on foreign relations welcome to the programme. the imf was pretty blunt today that against this backdrop of soaring inflation the central banks need to take decisive action and they said it was there, this problem, before the war. does that mean that they failed to get a grip on it? 50 i does that mean that they failed to get a grip on it?— get a grip on it? so i think it was no surprise _ get a grip on it? so i think it was no surprise that _ get a grip on it? so i think it was no surprise that all— get a grip on it? so i think it was no surprise that all of— get a grip on it? so i think it was no surprise that all of the - no surprise that all of the estimates for growth were revised down. we had the world bank, yesterday with a pretty sharp reduction in their growth estimates and i think, as we saw, in the build—up to the invasion of ukraine we actually saw some spike in energy prices that were again caused by rush are actually putting pressure on europeans, particularly germany
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and so i think was already feeding into some of the expectations for inflation. the spill—overs from ukraine are not only in the humanitarian catastrophe bucket, they are very much in the economic bucket. we have, you know, we have shocks to supply chains. we have shocks to supply chains. we have shocks to supply chains. we have shocks to the food supply for many countries. you know, people didn't think so much aboutjust what a huge contribution ukraine and russia both made to the global wheat and grain supplies so we have seen energy prices go up but we have also seen food price sheet up that feeds into much, much greater impact on inflation and a lower expectation for growth. one of the things you didn't mention as china and i will talk about that.— didn't mention as china and i will talk about that. lets address china
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because it is _ talk about that. lets address china because it is an _ talk about that. lets address china because it is an interconnected i because it is an interconnected global supply chain. i want to show you and people will be aware that, at the moment, there is a lockdown in shanghai. this map that you are looking at are the supply ships which are backed up in shanghai port which are backed up in shanghai port which means there is a further problem with the global supply chain and in fact, the bank of america today set back their forecast for chinese growth back to, in the most various circumstances, back to 3%. why does that matter? why does that matter not growing? {irina why does that matter? why does that matter not growing?— matter not growing? china is one of the ma'or matter not growing? china is one of the major engines _ matter not growing? china is one of the major engines of _ matter not growing? china is one of the major engines of global - matter not growing? china is one of the major engines of global growth. theyjust came out with the the major engines of global growth. they just came out with the first quarter growth of gdp and had it at 4.8% and that surprised a bit on the outside. but they have been maintaining this evo covid policy and, you know, a lot of the major cities and regions that are producing, some are expecting up to
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25% of chinese gdp in partial or full lockdown right now so they ships that are waiting are part of the supply chain, the bottlenecks and the backlogs that are still coming from the pandemic again. we have already experienced these one time around but we are about to see them come full—fledged in full force on the back of the zero covid policy. on the back of the zero covid oli . . on the back of the zero covid oli . , , ., ., , policy. let me bring you in on this. it is policy. let me bring you in on this. it is really — policy. let me bring you in on this. it is really interesting _ policy. let me bring you in on this. it is really interesting that - policy. let me bring you in on this. it is really interesting that joe i it is really interesting thatjoe biden hasjoined it is really interesting thatjoe biden has joined the it is really interesting thatjoe biden hasjoined the campaign trail today and this fundraising around the country and he wants to talk about trade investment ports which is interesting because i'vejust come back from holiday in the united states and thought the cost of living over there was eye watering compared to what it is even here in europe. this is how many republicans are talking about the cost of living and inflation in america. and when you compare it to what democrats are talking about you see this as the third railfor democrats. it is
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politically toxic and a real vote winner for the republicans. politically toxic and a real vote winnerfor the republicans. doug, winner for the republicans. doug, can winnerfor the republicans. doug, can you hear me? talk to me about the conversation about inflation and the conversation about inflation and the cost of living and why you think democrats are not tackling it? rising prices are the number one topic of conversation in the country right now. literally every day when you talk to somebody they're going to tell you what they paid for gas, they going to take what they paid for milk and that it has increased over of the past month. that is a constant source of conversation here in the united states and it is one of the things that has really dragged joe biden's approval rating down. that is why when 60% of the country says were heading as a country, in the wrong direction, inflation is the number one reason people are giving for that and they're seeing it every day of their lives and in every aspect of their lives. i'd like to get a sense that he is getting it wrong and that though? i was listening to some of
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the democrats earlier this week who think that the president's lecturing people when they are loving it. they feel it every day and he is trying to explain to them why there is this cost of living crisis but he is almost, it almost sounds patronising and home. it does and it is a problem for him under challenge from biden. it is a problem he cannot solve unilaterally and certainly with the imf reports today, when they are urging central banks to do, biden can have some influence but it is not his decision to make and ultimately fix inflation. they do get blamed for it.— get blamed for it. that is the issue, get blamed for it. that is the issue. you — get blamed for it. that is the issue, you cannot _ get blamed for it. that is the issue, you cannot solve i get blamed for it. that is the issue, you cannot solve this| issue, you cannot solve this unilaterally. ijust issue, you cannot solve this unilaterally. i just want to show our viewers, the inflation in energy prices across europe, that mine right at the top there, that is italy. 9% inflation for energy prices over the next year. that opens the door to insurgent parties, populist parties, and that brings us to what is going on in france on
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sunday because marine le pen has made political headway with the cost of very to emmanuel macron's expense. of very to emmanuel macron's exense. , ., , of very to emmanuel macron's exense. ,., , ., of very to emmanuel macron's exense. , ., , expense. the point here is what is the connection _ expense. the point here is what is the connection between _ expense. the point here is what is the connection between the i expense. the point here is what is the connection between the cost l expense. the point here is what is| the connection between the cost of living _ the connection between the cost of living and _ the connection between the cost of living and this one i think the connection in europe, beating france. — connection in europe, beating france, beaten italy, is far tighter than the _ france, beaten italy, is far tighter than the united states. the cost of energy— than the united states. the cost of energy was increasing prior to this one where — energy was increasing prior to this one where the arguments that i think was quite _ one where the arguments that i think was quite compelling was that putin decided _ was quite compelling was that putin decided to wage this war now because the price _ decided to wage this war now because the price of— decided to wage this war now because the price of energy was increasing and therefore what we are living now as essentially energy prices and not only energy prices, food prices are continuing — only energy prices, food prices are continuing to rise as a consequence of this— continuing to rise as a consequence of this war— continuing to rise as a consequence of this war and who were the populist _ of this war and who were the populist nationalists allies of? of vladimir— populist nationalists allies of? of vladimir putin. and therefore i think— vladimir putin. and therefore i think that _ vladimir putin. and therefore i think that is the argument that moderate governments in power need to make _
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moderate governments in power need to make it— moderate governments in power need to make. it is true that the cost of living _ to make. it is true that the cost of living is— to make. it is true that the cost of living is rising but the reason why it is rising — living is rising but the reason why it is rising is _ living is rising but the reason why it is rising is because of putin toward — it is rising is because of putin toward what trying to do now, meaning — toward what trying to do now, meaning sanctions is the way we are trying _ meaning sanctions is the way we are trying to— meaning sanctions is the way we are trying to stop this war. it is a difficult — trying to stop this war. it is a difficult argument to make an election— difficult argument to make an election campaign because it is a rather— election campaign because it is a rather subtle one but it is essentially what we are living through — essentially what we are living through now. it essentially what we are living through now.— essentially what we are living throu~h now. , , ., through now. it is interesting that ou have through now. it is interesting that you have said _ through now. it is interesting that you have said there _ through now. it is interesting that you have said there will _ through now. it is interesting that you have said there will be - through now. it is interesting that you have said there will be no i you have said there will be no decision until the election is over on sunday. and you can see why. a new party in germany would be slightly cautious of making any rash decisions on oil and gas when they know what effect will have on the german economy. 50 know what effect will have on the german economy.— know what effect will have on the german economy. so ideal i would arree german economy. so ideal i would a . ree with german economy. so ideal i would agree with everything _ german economy. so ideal i would agree with everything that - german economy. so ideal i would l agree with everything that has been said which i guess you're not supposed to do necessarily. the inflation issue and the connection with politics is something that is a global issue right now. unless you
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are a massive exporter of oil and gas and even then some. you're going to be experiencing inflation and every time you have a big inflation shock there are political ramifications so look across the spectrum. poor countries, developing countries and the g7 countries are all in the same vote when it comes to the political ramifications. irate to the political ramifications. we wondered the beginning of the war, sanctions hurt everybody, and you wonder going forward, as that starts, whether that focus will turn away from ukraine in full at the unity that the western alliance has put together? i unity that the western alliance has put together?— put together? i don't think so. i think the resolute _ put together? i don't think so. i think the resolute commitment| put together? i don't think so. i i think the resolute commitment that i have seen and that the us is seen
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with partners around the world. we have 30 countries right now that are backing a sanctions and export control ban and really an all—out economic component to what is really very hot water fight now. sanctions can only do so much but the us has tried to be very understanding of your�*s position. europe is a much more precarious position, more vulnerable to the us and so i think we are very sensitive in europe has to make its own decisions but we hope that they continue and i don't think that this war is going away anytime soon. think that this war is going away anytime soon-— think that this war is going away an ime soon. ., ,, i. ., .., anytime soon. thank you for coming on the programme. _ thank you for coming on the programme. since leaving the white house donald trump's retirement has
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looked nothing like that of his predecessors. he doesn't appear that interested in a presidential library, nor is he the kind to sit for hours painting or writing his memoirs, as others have done before him , no, he's spoilling for a fight. any fight. whether it's against those who defeated him in 2020 , or against those who don't believe the lie that he actually won in 2020. in those efforts he's positioned himself as a would—be kingmaker of the republican party, with mar—a—lago the castle. he's got the riches of a political monarch, with 120 million dollars in the war chest. and that is more than double what the entire republican national committee has at its disposal. tom lobianco — is a political reporter at yahoo news, and is covering the upcoming mid term elections. the bridal suite has been turned into trump headquarters. he isjust doling out the cash to anybody who he thinks is worthy of his support? you know what is ironic about that, thank you for having me, what was funny about that is it is actually the other way. the transactions tend
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to go money given to trump. i was just talking just before we hopped on here, i was to speak with a republican operative working out in the field on a couple of centre places and to me to be the excellent point. he said that a trump endorsement is valuable but only if you are willing to spend your money to advertise it because trump has not been giving out that money foot of the recently sitting on $120 million is because it keeps pouring it in. you have got to pay $250,000 for a vip it in. you have got to pay $250,000 fora vip dinner it in. you have got to pay $250,000 for a vip dinner down there. and now that was for the people he had already endorsed. giving him the money. and you hear that complaint from a lot of republicans so, yeah, it is funny, right? it should be the money going out and you think that is the way would normally work but obviously with trump things and not the way they normally work. that obviously with trump things and not the way they normally work.- the way they normally work. that is robabl the way they normally work. that is probably way _ the way they normally work. that is probably way has — the way they normally work. that is probably way has more _ the way they normally work. that is probably way has more money i the way they normally work. that is probably way has more money than| the way they normally work. that is i probably way has more money than the rnc, then. how much of this is about him being the de facto party boss?
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about him being, how much is the vendetta that he has with the republican hierarchy and the senate leader opposition leader in particular? how much is about that? absolutely. fortrump, particular? how much is about that? absolutely. for trump, with these meds turns, some of it is revengeful, you know, be ten republican to bertie for his impeachment in the house. you certainly have seen a lot that. you're going against the daughter of dick cheney, a republican helping with the january six investigation, you have seen him going after other people who voted for his impeachment so there is a measure of retribution but there was not a lot of consistency here. i will give you an example out of alabama, the deep south. he endorsed a long—time supporter in the house of representatives running for us senate and then it looks like he is probably not going to win, he is not performing very well. and trump
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pulls back the endorsement and endorses a different preferred candidate there and we're a lot of that. thejoke i heard, he recently endorsed someone, the hillbilly elegy, wall street broker, could easily become the next senator for ohio and thejoke i heard from easily become the next senator for ohio and the joke i heard from the republican operatives by the scenes was can vans hold onto that endorsement? in two weeks? iloathed was can vans hold onto that endorsement? in two weeks? what you ut that endorsement? in two weeks? what you put that down — endorsement? in two weeks? what you put that down to? _ endorsement? in two weeks? what you put that down to? does _ endorsement? in two weeks? what you put that down to? does he _ endorsement? in two weeks? what you put that down to? does he understand. put that down to? does he understand the things that if his candidates lose it might undermine his position as the leader in waiting? you lose it might undermine his position as the leader in waiting?— as the leader in waiting? you know, the thing with _ as the leader in waiting? you know, the thing with trump _ as the leader in waiting? you know, the thing with trump as _ as the leader in waiting? you know, the thing with trump as he - as the leader in waiting? you know, the thing with trump as he has i as the leader in waiting? you know, the thing with trump as he has this| the thing with trump as he has this very hardened base. this hydride nationalist populist in the us and that number will fluctuate anywhere from 20 to 30% of the electorate, give or take. very rough. and for a
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long time he was able to activate that base and wield it powerfully but the problem he faces is since he has been deeply formed and after spreading lies aboutjanuary six and lying about the election been stolen from him he does not have the power that he used to. he does not, mainstream television either. he is not as powerful as he used to be if you're in a general election with independents, moderates, democrats, you name it, he is not really an issue. in the general election. he issue. in the general election. he is an issue is with that hardened base. 20—30% of hard right loyalists that will stay with him and presumably do what he wants and this is going to be a big test of that. that really does count, doesn't it? in the primary season. let's talk
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about that because it is notjust donald trump erases a lot of money. political action being money and they like to raise unlimited funds to spend on supporting or fighting political candidates. one of the biggest is linked to the republican senate leader mitch mcconnell and scott the senate leadership fund and it is throwing vast sums of the battle to win back the senate from the democrats will top $141 million across the country so where is that money going? well, $37 million is going to georgia for the democrats won both senate seats in 2020. $27 million to the battleground state of north carolina and $7.4 million to million to alaska to protect the incumbent from one of donald trump's primary challengers. let me you in on this part. how much of this could undermine what the republican hierarchy is trying to do because this is the republicans to lose. they should be taking back the housing of a good chance to take
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back the senate in this donald trump gets in their way. irate back the senate in this donald trump gets in their way-— gets in their way. we see in the united states _ gets in their way. we see in the united states it _ gets in their way. we see in the united states it is _ gets in their way. we see in the united states it is deja - gets in their way. we see in the united states it is deja vu i gets in their way. we see in the united states it is deja vu all. gets in their way. we see in the l united states it is deja vu all over again— united states it is deja vu all over again and — united states it is deja vu all over again and if we look at past republican elections where republican elections where republican should have won seats and had them _ republican should have won seats and had them taken away, for senate seats _ had them taken away, for senate seats tom — had them taken away, for senate seats. tom aitken in missouri, richard — seats. tom aitken in missouri, richard murdoch in indiana, two senate — richard murdoch in indiana, two senate seats that were taken from us mcconnelt— senate seats that were taken from us mcconnell is very mindful of that. and it _ mcconnell is very mindful of that. and it ultimately speaks to candidates matter. he a candidate is or who _ candidates matter. he a candidate is or who you _ candidates matter. he a candidate is or who you are running against is vitally— or who you are running against is vitally important and republicans want to _ vitally important and republicans want to make sure that they don't leave _ want to make sure that they don't leave any— want to make sure that they don't leave any seats on the table as they have in _ leave any seats on the table as they have in the — leave any seats on the table as they have in the past. to bring you in on a very— have in the past. to bring you in on a very american story. 2024 does not seem _ a very american story. 2024 does not seem as _ a very american story. 2024 does not seem as far— a very american story. 2024 does not seem as far away any more and we have _ seem as far away any more and we have this _ seem as far away any more and we have this western unity and yet we have this western unity and yet we have donald trump sitting there, still the — have donald trump sitting there, still the favoured candidate, does that make europeans nervous?
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absolutely. at the moment it is not making _ absolutely. at the moment it is not making them — absolutely. at the moment it is not making them as _ absolutely. at the moment it is not making them as nervous _ absolutely. at the moment it is not making them as nervous as - absolutely. at the moment it is not making them as nervous as they i making them as nervous as they should _ making them as nervous as they should be — making them as nervous as they should be because _ making them as nervous as they should be because they- making them as nervous as they should be because they are i should be because they are preoccupied _ should be because they are preoccupied with— should be because they are preoccupied with the - should be because they are preoccupied with the here i should be because they are i preoccupied with the here and should be because they are - preoccupied with the here and now but if— preoccupied with the here and now but if you — preoccupied with the here and now but if you look— preoccupied with the here and now but if you look at _ preoccupied with the here and now but if you look at the _ preoccupied with the here and now but if you look at the picture - preoccupied with the here and now but if you look at the picture as i preoccupied with the here and now but if you look at the picture as it i but if you look at the picture as it is, but if you look at the picture as it is. you _ but if you look at the picture as it is. you really— but if you look at the picture as it is, you really are _ but if you look at the picture as it is, you really are in _ but if you look at the picture as it is, you really are in a _ but if you look at the picture as it is, you really are in a situation i is, you really are in a situation whereby— is, you really are in a situation whereby putin _ is, you really are in a situation whereby putin is— is, you really are in a situation whereby putin is losing - is, you really are in a situation whereby putin is losing on i is, you really are in a situation whereby putin is losing on the | whereby putin is losing on the battlefield _ whereby putin is losing on the battlefield and _ whereby putin is losing on the battlefield and everything i whereby putin is losing on the i battlefield and everything that whereby putin is losing on the i battlefield and everything that he loses _ battlefield and everything that he loses that — battlefield and everything that he loses that he _ battlefield and everything that he loses that he could _ battlefield and everything that he loses that he could be _ battlefield and everything that he loses that he could be winning i loses that he could be winning through— loses that he could be winning through elections— loses that he could be winning through elections in— loses that he could be winning through elections in the - loses that he could be winning through elections in the westl loses that he could be winning i through elections in the west so, loses that he could be winning - through elections in the west so, be it what— through elections in the west so, be it what happens _ through elections in the west so, be it what happens next _ through elections in the west so, be it what happens next week - through elections in the west so, be it what happens next week in - through elections in the west so, be it what happens next week in francei it what happens next week in france and indeed — it what happens next week in france and indeed what _ it what happens next week in france and indeed what happens _ it what happens next week in france and indeed what happens first - it what happens next week in france and indeed what happens first in- and indeed what happens first in november— and indeed what happens first in novemberand _ and indeed what happens first in novemberand then— and indeed what happens first in november and then in— and indeed what happens first in november and then in 2024- and indeed what happens first in november and then in 2024 in. and indeed what happens first in. november and then in 2024 in the united _ november and then in 2024 in the united states. _ november and then in 2024 in the united states, passing _ november and then in 2024 in the united states, passing through i november and then in 2024 in the . united states, passing through what happens _ united states, passing through what happens in _ united states, passing through what happens in itaty— united states, passing through what happens in italy next— united states, passing through what happens in italy next year. - united states, passing through what happens in italy next year. this- happens in italy next year. this realty _ happens in italy next year. this realty is — happens in italy next year. this realty is a — happens in italy next year. this really is a moment. _ happens in italy next year. this really is a moment. given- happens in italy next year. this really is a moment. given that| happens in italy next year. this. really is a moment. given that this entire _ really is a moment. given that this entire war— really is a moment. given that this entire war is— really is a moment. given that this entire war is really— really is a moment. given that this entire war is really reconfiguring. entire war is really reconfiguring itself— entire war is really reconfiguring itself as— entire war is really reconfiguring itself as one _ entire war is really reconfiguring itself as one between _ entire war is really reconfiguring itself as one between liberal- itself as one between liberal democracy's _ itself as one between liberal democracy's authoritarian i itself as one between liberal- democracy's authoritarian powers and their backers, — democracy's authoritarian powers and their backers, within— democracy's authoritarian powers and their backers, within liberal— their backers, within liberal democracies _ their backers, within liberal democracies themselves, l their backers, within liberali democracies themselves, it their backers, within liberal. democracies themselves, it is their backers, within liberal- democracies themselves, it is hugely important _ democracies themselves, it is hugely important atso — democracies themselves, it is hugely important. also concerning _ democracies themselves, it is hugely important. also concerning the - important. also concerning the debate — important. also concerning the debate about _ important. also concerning the debate about what _ important. also concerning the debate about what next - important. also concerning the debate about what next for- important. also concerning the - debate about what next for european defence _ debate about what next for european defence at — debate about what next for european defence at the — debate about what next for european defence. at the moment, _ debate about what next for european defence. at the moment, thank- defence. at the moment, thank goodness, _ defence. at the moment, thank goodness, nato _ defence. at the moment, thank goodness, nato is _ defence. at the moment, thank goodness, nato is there - defence. at the moment, thank goodness, nato is there but- defence. at the moment, thank. goodness, nato is there but what defence. at the moment, thank- goodness, nato is there but what of donald _ goodness, nato is there but what of donald trunrp — goodness, nato is there but what of donald trump were _ goodness, nato is there but what of donald trump were to _ goodness, nato is there but what of donald trump were to be _ goodness, nato is there but what of donald trump were to be president| goodness, nato is there but what of. donald trump were to be president of the united _ donald trump were to be president of the united states— donald trump were to be president of the united states in— donald trump were to be president of the united states in 2024, _ donald trump were to be president of
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the united states in 2024, where - the united states in 2024, where would _ the united states in 2024, where would it — the united states in 2024, where would it lead _ the united states in 2024, where would it lead us— the united states in 2024, where would it lead us today _ the united states in 2024, where would it lead us today if - the united states in 2024, where would it lead us today if putin - the united states in 2024, where l would it lead us today if putin were to be _ would it lead us today if putin were to be wasting — would it lead us today if putin were to be wasting his— would it lead us today if putin were to be wasting his war— would it lead us today if putin were to be wasting his war in _ would it lead us today if putin were to be wasting his war in 2024 - would it lead us today if putin were to be wasting his war in 2024 but l to be wasting his war in 2024 but not in _ to be wasting his war in 2024 but not in a _ to be wasting his war in 2024 but not in a good _ to be wasting his war in 2024 but not in a good place, _ to be wasting his war in 2024 but not in a good place, clearly. - to be wasting his war in 2024 but not in a good place, clearly. really interesting- _ not in a good place, clearly. really interesting. lovely _ not in a good place, clearly. really interesting. lovely to _ not in a good place, clearly. really interesting. lovely to have - not in a good place, clearly. really interesting. lovely to have you - not in a good place, clearly. really interesting. lovely to have you on| interesting. lovely to have you on the programme. thank you for being with us. it's notjust donald trump who raises lots of money — let's leave behind the fiery rhetoric of american politics, and turn instead to the fireball that landed in shrewsbury, england last week. a meteor that has gone missing. easter monday is normally a day to hunt easter eggs, this is probably not a disimilar size, but it is proving quite ellusive. the uk fireball alliance spent their entire weekend, to the south of shrewsbury hunting a 20 mile area, around 50 square kilometres to no avail. the largest pieces will look a bit like this — the size of a standard easter egg, and the smallest maybe something more like a mini chocolate egg — so they are going to some help. well, professor katiejoy — from the department of earth and environmental sciences at manchester university and a member of the fireball alliance. you have taken the night off from
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searching. i would you have taken the night off from searching. iwould have you have taken the night off from searching. i would have thought night time is the time to look for fireballs, is it not? latte night time is the time to look for fireballs, is it not?— fireballs, is it not? we been lookin: fireballs, is it not? we been looking pp _ fireballs, is it not? we been looking up with _ fireballs, is it not? we been looking up with our - fireballs, is it not? we been looking up with our cameras fireballs, is it not? we been - looking up with our cameras but the daytime is when we need to use our eyes to look down at the ground to try and find the space rocks are the wider team effort and a huge amount of effort this weekend and covered miles miles of ground across shropshire but we are now putting out a call to people who live in the area to send us photos of any strange rocks that you may have found they could hopefully be a piece of this meteorite that has come from outer space. is it piece of this meteorite that has come from outer space. is it your hunch that _ come from outer space. is it your hunch that it _ come from outer space. is it your hunch that it could _ come from outer space. is it your hunch that it could have - come from outer space. is it your hunch that it could have landed i come from outer space. is it your| hunch that it could have landed on the back garden, maybe through the trampoline or conservatory roof. as apple could have happened? welcome ofthe apple could have happened? welcome of the last time _ apple could have happened? welcome of the last time this _ apple could have happened? welcome of the last time this happened - apple could have happened? welcome of the last time this happened in - of the last time this happened in the uk was just over a year ago of the last time this happened in the uk wasjust over a year ago in gloucestershire that time around it landed on somebody�*s drive and they were lucky enough to recognise it as being a little bit different and backedit being a little bit different and backed it up pretty quickly and got in touch with us and we were able to
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go and identify attend lo and behold, it was a meteorite from space so we're really hoping somebody has got their eyes peeled and has noticed something a little bit different that wasn't there before and if you think you have found a rock that looks a little bit strange please do send us a photograph and we would love to try to identify it. hath? photograph and we would love to try to identify it— to identify it. why do you want it? an excellent _ to identify it. why do you want it? an excellent question _ to identify it. why do you want it? an excellent question put - to identify it. why do you want it? an excellent question put these . an excellent question put these pieces of asteroids that come from the asteroid belt providers with samples of the early solar system material so it could present us with a really unique asteroid type which returns but that evolution of the solar system so they are priceless examples of scientific tools that go back to space and time to wear the solar system is first farming. haste solar system is first farming. have ou not solar system is first farming. have you got good _ solar system is first farming. have you got good searches _ solar system is first farming. have you got good searches on - solar system is first farming. have you got good searches on the ground? yes, we have lots of good people who have experienced material hunting in
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australia, chile, antarctica. we have a lot of skill set in doing this. �* have a lot of skill set in doing this. . ., , have a lot of skill set in doing this. �* ., , . have a lot of skill set in doing this.�* ., , have a lot of skill set in doing this. ., , this. are only ask because doug lost his ke s this. are only ask because doug lost his keys this — this. are only ask because doug lost his keys this weekend, _ this. are only ask because doug lost his keys this weekend, didn't - this. are only ask because doug lost his keys this weekend, didn't you i his keys this weekend, didn't you doug? latte his keys this weekend, didn't you dou: ? ~ ~ . . , his keys this weekend, didn't you dou:?~ ,, _, , ., his keys this weekend, didn't you dou:?~ ,, ,. , ., ., doug? we were keep an eye out for those. doug? we were keep an eye out for those- and — doug? we were keep an eye out for those. and natalie _ doug? we were keep an eye out for those. and natalie is _ doug? we were keep an eye out for those. and natalie is down - doug? we were keep an eye out for those. and natalie is down there i doug? we were keep an eye out for those. and natalie is down there in | those. and natalie is down there in south africa. there was no light pollution down there where you are in the wilderness. presumably you are seeing all sorts?— are seeing all sorts? frankly s-ueakin are seeing all sorts? frankly speaking at _ are seeing all sorts? frankly speaking at the _ are seeing all sorts? frankly speaking at the moment, i are seeing all sorts? frankly speaking at the moment, asj are seeing all sorts? frankly i speaking at the moment, as you are seeing all sorts? frankly - speaking at the moment, as you can see, there _ speaking at the moment, as you can see, there is — speaking at the moment, as you can see, there is no light at all. let alone _ see, there is no light at all. let alone outside the top there is light inside _ alone outside the top there is light inside either so i wouldn't mind a meteor— inside either so i wouldn't mind a meteor flying patent lighting it up a little _ meteor flying patent lighting it up a little bit. : meteor flying patent lighting it up a little bit. , , a little bit. : the persevere with the search _ a little bit. : the persevere with the search in _ a little bit. : the persevere with the search in shrewsbury? i a little bit. : the persevere with the search in shrewsbury? we i a little bit. : the persevere with i the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give — the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give it _ the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give it a _ the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give it a few _ the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give it a few more _ the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give it a few more days i the search in shrewsbury? we think we will give it a few more days and | we will give it a few more days and then we will wait and see what photographs come in and then we will probably go back out again in a few
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weeks' time so we can access fresh ground where farmers have been growing some crops. it ground where farmers have been growing some crops.— growing some crops. it will have killed. it won't _ growing some crops. it will have killed. it won't still _ growing some crops. it will have killed. it won't still be _ killed. it won't still be smouldering, will it? it killed. it won't still be smouldering, will it? it is cold before it hits _ smouldering, will it? it is cold before it hits the _ smouldering, will it? it is cold before it hits the bounce i smouldering, will it? it is cold before it hits the bounce of i smouldering, will it? it is cold| before it hits the bounce of the so—called rocks that look like black and shiny. they look like they had them burned on the outside. i admit i don't mean to to pick it up. but if they do pick it up please use the back further than your hand because your hand up my daddy quite like to keep it as clean as possible. best of luck. keep it as clean as possible. best of luck- you _ keep it as clean as possible. best of luck. you battled _ keep it as clean as possible. best of luck. you battled through without lights in the meteor showers. thank you very much indeed. i hope you find your keys. do you know where you lost them?— find your keys. do you know where you lost them? they are somewhere here. they are somewhere here.
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with clouds over derbyshire. they are uuite with clouds over derbyshire. they are quite fair— with clouds over derbyshire. they are quite fair and _ with clouds over derbyshire. they are quite fair and are _ with clouds over derbyshire. tie: are quite fair and are caused with clouds over derbyshire. tte: are quite fair and are caused by with clouds over derbyshire. tt9:1 are quite fair and are caused by the wind is blowing a bit more quickly across the top of the cloud than at the bottom. it makes these weight pattern that can look like waves breaking on the beach. tuesday also brought plenty of showers with some longer outbreaks of rain in northern ireland. thanks to the tail end of a weather front here. the west of the week, though, the weather will become drier because, high pressures to our north are going to tend to dominate but later in the week we are going to see a squeeze in the highs of of us so it will get increasingly windy with the wind is coming in from an east
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north—easterly direction. on wednesday we start off on a chilly areas of frost to start the day. things do warm up through the afternoon. the majority across western parts of england and wales as well. one or two heavy ones but aside from that a lot of dry weather and in the sunshine it will be a bit warmer as well. temperatures reaching a high of 18 in london and 16 in glasgow. heading into wednesday night, showers fade away as temperatures start to drop. again with clear skies around the could be one or two patches of frost in the countryside but otherwise, in the towns and cities were looking at lows of about 3—7. thursday looks like it will be a dry day however one thing you will notice is the winds are going to start to blow a little bit more strongly particularly noticeable across eastern coasts of scotland and england where the winds are coming in across the cooler waters of the north sea. and so the temperatures across these eastern areas are
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dropping a few degrees. 13—15, the highest temperature is a bit further west with seventeens for cardiff and liverpool. and so friday we end the week there is winds blowing more strongly against a plot of dry weather but, as there is winds increase in strength temperatures will drop particularly across eastern coasts of scotland and england when we look at highs of 11 or 12. england when we look at highs of 11 or12. even england when we look at highs of 11 or 12. even further west with a slightly windier conditions it won't be quite as warm. 1a or 15 as the top temperature. this weekend we take a look at the jets pattern. blocked in the atlantic at the moment. heavy rain going into parts of spain, big area of high pressure in scandinavia bringing warm sunny weather and dry across scotland as well but the detail closer to our shores, lots of been little small—scale vortices each capable of being cloud domain but these are changing position each model run and so the forecast is very uncertain in
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the atmosphere which is pretty chaotic and hard to nail down. what can we expect this weekend? well, pretty confident we will have those brisk north—easterly winds and quite a bit of cloud around the top sunny spells it on the whole template is probably going to be running a little bit above average however will it stay dry? not so sure about that. you may well start to see outbreaks of rain over the weekend at the coming from the south or or coming from the east and either way northern scotland will probably stay dry with bright or sunny weather. beyond that into next week, given all the uncertainty in the atmosphere it is almost impossible to nail down the forecast. a few are looking at your app you will probably see the fog changing on a day today forecast over the next few days due to that uncertainty.
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tonight at ten — borisjohnson offers another apology to the public for breaking his own lockdown rules. the prime minister was on his way to parliament to make his first statement to mp5 since being fined by police. flanked by his chancellor, who's also been fined, mrjohnson was still insisting that he hadn't knowingly broken the law. as soon as i received the notice, i acknowledged the hurt and the anger and i said that people had a right to expect better of their prime minister. what a joke. even now, as the latest mealy—mouthed apology stumbles out
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of one side of his mouth, a new set of deflections

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